Q3 Trader Talk
July - September 2023
Do you have a daily trading plan?
New FNL Schedule!
A daily trading plan gives a much clearer view of the market and keeps me from "button clicking" and trying to capture every wiggle of the market. Every morning at 8am ET, a few traders at FNL get together and build a trading plan which is shared with our traders in session.. No predictions or crystal balls, but levels if the price goes up, down or chops sideways.
Here is a sample of a plan done last week prior to the trading day:
Tuesday 7.11.23 Trading Plan
Overnight High 4456
Overnight Low 4439
Last Week High 4498.25
Last Week Low 4368.50
May High 4287
May Low 4106.25
June High 4498.25
June Low 4216
July High 4494
July Low 4419.25
Overnight POC 4449.25
Naked POC - 4484.75, 4385.5
Weekly POC - 4438
Monthly POC -4485
VWAP Close Friday 4449.75
VWAP Overnight 4447.54
CHOP area 4420 - 4490 Large chop level...
Smaller chop area last night H/L 4456 - 4439
LEVEL TO LEVEL
Longs: new support level at 4446-4450 (Daily Fib, Key level, resistance July 7, support July 10)
Support level 4432 still in play. retested on Friday at closing bell
4432-35 heavy support level, lose it and we target 4420
*****4420 BIG support (Wed close, heavy support/resistance level, June 29th start of huge 80 pt run)
Failure of 4420 target 4410 - 4400 support
Longs 4438.75 overnight low, entry around 4443 or so.
Short: 4455 overnight high, entry around 4450 or so
LEVEL TO LEVEL
FBOT - Failed Break Out Trade!
In our last blog, we talked about a Breakout Trade Strategy, to capture momentum after a key level had been broken. Now, what happens if your breakout trades are not breaking out, but failing?
Over the last 12 months, the ES (S&P500) has been extremely choppy ping ponging between 4300 and 3800. Pure breakouts have been few and far between. If you are not familiar with the Breakout Trade Strategy, please review this blog
One way to counter this is to identify Failed Break Outs and how to trade them for profit. Most large runs (either long or short) will start with a failed break out. For going long, a low is taken out (looks like a breakout to the short side) stops are run and then the price reverses. These false breakouts happen daily. Learning how to identify them takes practice but has become one of my key setups.
The Power of Self-Improvement: Choices Changes & Challenges & (Smart) Goals
Tuesday and Thurs 11-12pm ET
LIVE in session
By Titus R.
I have come to understand the journey of trading is not just about financial success but also about personal growth and self-improvement. Within the realm of trading, the power of self-improvement choices plays a pivotal role in shaping our trading journey and overall success.
In this series of self improvement we will look at the 7 parts of Choices Changes & Challenges (CCC) and how combining this with (SMART) goals can start you down the right path.
These sessions are done LIVE every Tuesday and Thursday between 11-12pm ET
1 Embracing a Growth Mindset:
Choosing to adopt a growth mindset is a transformative choice in trading. By believing in our ability to learn, adapt, and improve, we open ourselves up to continuous growth and development. Embracing a growth mindset allows us to view setbacks as opportunities for learning, seek feedback, and persistently work towards enhancing our trading skills.
2 Committing to Learning:
Making a choice to prioritize learning is essential for self-improvement in trading. The financial markets are complex and ever-evolving, requiring us to constantly expand our knowledge and stay updated with market trends, trading strategies, and risk management techniques. Choosing to invest time and effort into learning equips us with the tools to make more informed trading decisions.
Be sure to stay tuned for the remaining parts (3-7) and how to apply to your life and trading (yes they go hand in hand).
Trading Habits to Develop
Here are some great habits that Randy S has developed over the last few years of trading. Hopefully they can help you with your trading.
Hide your P & L
If you trade your P & L you will take profit too early and extend of shorten your stops which will both drain your profits.
Always know where you are wrong and put your stop there - with just a smidge of wiggle room
Study long enough to know where you are wrong. If the stop hunters take advantage you can always get back in without extending your risk.
Listen to your gut and find trades that fit your style and focus only on them - of course backtest your trade to give you confidence!
You trade yourself, not the market. You have enough to learn without trying to remake who you already are.
Create a plan and stick to it
You can adjust the plan as you learn more but you have to stick to the plan long enough to know if or when that will occur. Think of this as your college level education.
Place most of your trade fill at your target trading multiple contracts. Leave a small runner, up to 25% of the trade, if price action supports it.
This is how to extend your profits and stick to your original decision. Your stop will tell you when you are wrong. This is graduate level trading.
Cut your risk until you become consistent with your trade plan.
Give the market your time, not your money. But… you HAVE to have some risk in the market to actually learn.
Check the market every day and know what market conditions support your trades.
The market has many faces. Learn to recognize the face of the market that gives your trading style and edge.
The market is always changing. Learn to recognize the change and how it affects your trading.
The market is going up, going down, or going nowhere — plus variations of each. Things like levels of support and resistance and previous price action will tell you where to look for a change.
Check market news and know when important reports and earnings reports will be released.
I am NOT saying to necessarily stay out of the market during reports. Reports move the market. That volatility creates opportunities. Learn how that volatility affects your style. Until you learn that, it is best to not trade live money when you know a report is coming out.
Know your stats.
Stats are your test results — how you know what truly works.
The best loser wins!
FNL Updates and Events
SimMillions Going Strong!
Our regular SimMillions traders have all seen an improvement in their trading on Fridays and I think most would agree, that their overall trading has improved.
Come on out every Friday at 10am ET and share, collaborate and most of all have fun with your trading!
FNL Trade Risk Sheet
FNL Trade Risk Sheet is available NOW in the Member Center. This risk sheet will show you exactly how many contracts you should be trading based on your account size, percentage of the account you want to risk per trade, and the size of the stop.
Member Referral Program
FNL is a member driven group, and we plan to keep it that way!
When you refer a friend, you'll receive up to $500!
Ask us how! (Available only to existing FNL Members)
Don't miss out on the party. Watch past FNL YouTube LiveStreams!
Subscribe and get alerted when FNL goes LIVE on Youtube!
TRADING MADE FUN & SIMPLE
If you are looking to build or solidify your foundation, look to trade multiple contracts while managing risk or just want to hang with fellow traders, FNL is here for you!
FNL Member Spotlight
Jack B, UT
- Jack B.
Where did you grow up?
Where do you currently live?
- American Fork, Utah
Do you have any children?
- We have 2 sons
How long have you been trading?
- Futures since May 2016
What is your favorite trade?
- Intrigued by trade with runners, however, typically use G4S3
Do you have any pets?
- Not presently. However, we have had dogs with our kids. (As a child on the ranch in Montana we had lots of animals. dogs, cats, cows, horses, pigs, chickens, ducks, geese, and even turkeys!!!)
First thing you'd do if you won the lottery?
- Since I haven't bought a ticket, my odds are not good however, if that happened. .... I would pay my tithing, pay my debts, take a nice vacation, give some money to our kids, donate to charities, ...... and Peggy (my wife says to take her out to a really nice dinner! (So, I could stay out of the doghouse!!!)
What is your favorite movie?
- Top Gun Maverick
- "Come Sail Away" by STYX ( Also like songs from Journey)
- Gardening, Stocks, Trading Futures, watching College Sports and fishing (though it has been a while and I don't know much about it.)
What super power would you love to have?
- Sometimes a crystal ball would seem nice, other times not so sure!!!
Who is your celebrity look alike?
- (As a kid I felt I could outdraw Matt Dillon from Gun Smoke!!!)
What is the worst job you have ever had?
- Chopping grain on our ranch. Next was fixing worn out barbed wire fences.
What is your favorite food?
- American Chinese (Sweet and Sour), Love Huckleberry pie!
What is your dream vehicle?
- (Grew up with Buicks and Chevy pickups)
As a kid, what did you want to be when you grew up?
- Initially a cowboy....however I gave up on that!
If you could be any animal which would you be and why?
- A bear! They get to hibernate and avoid winter!!!
What makes you unique?
- While working as an usher at Concert event, Idina Menzel, the singer from "Let it go in Frozen" on Frozen came off stage and started interacting with the crowd. Among others she interacted with, she came up to me, put her hand on my shoulder and ask me if I wanted to dance. ..... (I was petrified and did not dance!!!)
Also, as a kid fed a baby deer that we called "Bambi" on a pop bottle with milk like we used to do with our bum lambs.
2023 member testimonials
Randy S, TX
When I joined FNL my idea of trading was very simplistic— look for a trade signal with a trend on a five minute ES chart, take it at the close of the signal candle and hope it fills before it stops out — easy. What I learned was trading really is easy but consistent trading is very, very hard.
Since joining FNL, I learned that trading is not about a signal but about defining a truly repeatable process that matches my personality and then trusting the man in the mirror to have both the patience and the courage to trust the process. What makes that possible is having a band of brothers (and sisters) to help me decipher the market, catch me when I fall to my inner demon, encourage me when I am discouraged and celebrate with me when I succeed. I need a group like FNL to help me define my process, figure out what I am doing to support my process and what I am doing to subvert my process.
For a couple of years before FNL I dreaded facing the charts and having to take trades because I did not trust the process. Now I wake up early every morning with anticipation knowing that at opening bell I am going to trade and it is up to me to use my process to take trades that will allow me to collect what the market is giving and to know when the market stops giving before I get hurt.
Randy S, TX